Paris Air Show – not subdued after all

The star of the show was the Superjet 100 because it was making its big show debut

The Paris Air Show, where I was working for Aviation International News on the show dailies (see www.ainonline.com), was surprisingly upbeat despite a lack of big stories. It was also very busy on Tuesday and Wednesday, after a very wet Monday. We were there working from the Friday before the show, including the weekend, from early til late as the Monday issue is always very full and plenty of companies send their latest snippets. The best story was Qatar Airways’ boss Akbar Al Baker’s berating of Boeing for its handling of the Boeing 787 – which we thought may make its maiden flight towards the end of the show (but in Seattle of course). It will probably fly next week, but first deliveries are now some two years behind the original schedule. It doesn’t seem long since I helped write a book on the project, visiting Seattle along with manufacturing sites in Charlston, Italy and Japan using a rickety, Dutch-rolling old 727 corporate jet that Boeing hired. That was 2006, and now is 2009, and Boeing’s delays have given Airbus real hope for its A350. The show saw Boeing’s Scott Carson revealing in a packed press conference in the auditorium that it is looking seriously at a re-winged 777. It has clearly realised that the 787 is too small to capture all the market the A350 can. Bombardier was quick off the marks at the show giving an upbeat market forecast (for after the recession, which it said was manageable (far more so than 2001) because of the big backlogs the industry has built up); and also an update on the CSeries – which is looking increasingly impressive to fill the “neglected” 100-149 seat segment. Embraer was very quiet although at the journalist awards I sat on their table, with Air & Cosmos journalist turned press man Herve Tilloy hosting. The company has been in a tussle with the government over cutting jobs but we didn’t discuss that, too political! Instead we discussed Serbian aviation with a Serbian aviation magazine founder who also sat at Embraer’s table. I asked whether Serbia had a low-cost carrier and (having had a few glasses of wine) one was duly invented by our Serb friend to fill the apparent vacuum – ‘No one Airways’ (better written as No 1 Airways) was given a tall lady journalist CEO. No prizes for guessing it was Mary Kirby (aka Flight’s ‘Runway Girl’), also on Embraer’s table. However we discovered that Serbs can only fly to Iraq, Cuba and Montenegro without a visa, so popular are they! After numerous gongs were handed out it was announced that Geoffrey Thomas was Aerospace Journalist of the Year. Good one Geoff (who was also with us on the Boeing 787 trip in ‘06). On the military side the A400M was the latest target for AIN’s Chris Pocock, who also had half an eye to proving that the UAE had ordered Dassault Rafales from France. In the end little happened other than a greater awareness that the A400M was really an almighty cock-up of a project. If the UK pulls out, as looks possible, it could cause a chain reaction although Louis Gallois, EADS CEO, said France, Spain and Germany would carry on. Yet he was more interested in going to watch France beat the All Blacks at rugby than staying to watch Saturday’s EADS press day! Great achievement though it was, things are looking tough for EADS as it wonders how it can really afford the A350, A400M and A380 when customers are clamouring to delay aircraft and struggling to get finance for them. 2010 is going to be a real crunch time. I’ll sign off with a mention of GE, who with CFM and France’s Snecma handled the show in the most subtle yet professional manner of all – from the GEnx unveiling to spinning a range of Etihad engine orders into the ‘biggest ever’ – to CFM’s fun but not at all ostentatious shindig in the Tuileries Gardens glass house – topped by an unfussy but effective press release to sum up the show as it had been for GE/Snecma/CFM. CFM really sets the standard for international aerospace joint ventures, and GE gets the gong for Aerospace Company of the Year (Note to Ian Bustin at Rolls-Royce: You can have it at Farnbrough 2010 – but only if England wins the World Cup!)

Arabian Aerospace

Look out for the next issue of the highly successful Arabian Aerospace magazine, which will include a focus on Kuwait  following FB’s visit this month. Runway lengthening and strengthening work starts soon – at present A380s can only use KIA as an alternate – and a third runway is planned west of 33L. Kuwait Airways is meanwhile hoping that its longed-awaited fleet renewal programme can get underway. An Amiri decree dictates that the airline must be privatised first so that a strategic partner can be secured. After liberalisation in 2005 Kuwait has seen low-cost carrier Jazeera Airways and now premium travel Wataniya Airways start up, eating into the monopoly KAC once enjoyed.

Isle of Man upgrades facilities

Ronaldsway Airport, the Isle of Man’s main airport (situated at Castletown), is upgrading its runway to comply with ICAO’s RESA (Runway End Safety Area) requirements and is also having a new control tower constructed. FB was there for a week of R&R, but recently wrote an article for AIN’s EBACE Convention News (for the annual bizjet show in Geneva) on the Island’s very successful aircraft register, which is now two years old. Brian Johnson, Director of Civil Aviation, hopes thatit will become the register of choice for private aircraft.

The new control tower at Ronaldsway is going up fast

Boeing Briefs Banks

Boeing Capital’s cerebral md Kostya Zolotusky has been addressing the aircraft finance community in New York, London, Hong Kong and Dubai, trying to persuade them that it’s not all gloom and doom. In London’s Canary Wharf (Four Seasons Hotel) last week he met reporters for a round-table discussion while the bankers enjoyed a buffet lunch, and outlined Boeing’s take on the challenges ahead. Boeing believes that “the volatility of oil will be staggering” going forward, and it sees a long term price range of $60-90 a barrel, sometimes spiking outside that. That is providing a solid incentive to develop alternative fuels – starting with ‘drop-in’ Camelina-derived fuel, moving later to Jatropha and then, when the technology matures in a few dacades time, algae-based fuels. This will smooth out volatility, reduce net Carbon and reduce US reliance on imported oil. With vast areas of the US lying fallow every 3-4 years, Boeing sees this as a great opportunity to scale up production of Camelina grass. “We’re talking to airlines and also to the ports, as when you do Jet A the first 50-60 percent is biodiesel,” says Zolutusky. While the environment is top of the agenda now, however, Boeing’s core concern is its orderbook and to that end it is saying that the current economic climate is “manageable.” Zolutusky sees banks in China taking a greater role in a more global aircraft finance market, and says that Boeing and US Exim Bank have created a new structured finance product to help airlines acquire new aircraft. He points to the current popularity of and demand for US Treasury financial products as the risk/return now looks very attractive – so there is a “long line of banks waiting to do US Exim deals.” On the London audience he said they were “more dour and pessimistic than New York, which surprised me” but on reflection he saw the reason – the US market has been one step removed, often taking an underwriting role, whereas the London financiers were directly involved. “This group has been the market makers for 15 years… they can see what they are losing… the liquid markets weren’t great as they offered thin margins” – and now, the margins are potentially great but the parent companies won’t back the deals. Zolutusky also said he believed the 777 and 787 were a combination that was “working phenomenally well”, referring to Airbus’s A340 as the “canary in the coal mine.” “All A340s will have to leave the world’s market before a single 777 is grounded,” he added – because the A340 is four-engined, and would not be an efficient freighter either. And of the A350, he said that the best Airbus could hope for was that the Aircraft would be almost as good as the 787 and that Boeing had been confident in going first in that market that there was no breakthrough technology that would allow Airbus to “leapfrog” the 787. He believes that ultimately the 787 will scale up very well as a possible 777 replacement and that this could “overwhelm the A350.” [Airbus is welcome to reply to all this - Ed.]

Flu panic

With the world in the grip of pending panic over a possible pandemic, IATA has responded by very sensibly seeking to put the record straight as to the risks of aircraft cabins spreading the viral infection. It has emphasised that “airlines are ready for the heightened level of alert… IATA has worked with WHO to prepare guidance material for front line staff at airlines, including cabin crew, maintenance workers, cleaners, passenger agents and cargo/baggage handlers.” Critically it states that modern aircraft are designed with cabin health in mind (although there’s no getting away from it being a confined environment): “People getting on planes [otherwise known as passengers... unless they are worried about hijackers suing airlines...] should be reassured of two things… airlines have equipment and measures in place to keep the cabin environment safe. For example modern aircraft [this immediately says 'don't get on old clapped out aeroplanes...] have air filtration systems similar to those in hospitals, aircraft are regularly disinfected as part of normal cleaning routines and crew are trained in handling procedures for passengers who might become ill on board aircraft. Secondly the years of planning for the possibility of avian influenza have prepared the industry to deal efficiently with the unfolding situation.” These comments were from the wise head of Giovanni Bisignani, IATA director general and ceo, and were points very well made. This message needs to be given wide airing, just like those cabins.

RR on Green target

Rolls-Royce engineer Alan Newby told the Royal Aeronautical Society’s annual conference last week that the company thought that the ACARE targets for emissions were achievable, and outlined a range of EU-backed projects in which it was involved under ACARE, such as CleanSky. The 2008 Addendum to the ACARE Strategic Research Agenda (SRA2) places more emphasis on environmental performance of aircraft, and the development of alternative fuels. The targets set when the SRA1 was first launched in 2001 were 80% NOx reduction, and 50% reductions for noise and CO2, by 2020. Rolls is taking a pick-and-mix approach to readying technologies, so it can pull together those that the market wants when it wants them, said Newby. This includes the development of a so-called ‘Game Changer’ design, with a 50:1 bypass ratio, the ‘open rotor’ propfan. Rolls believes that is has solved noise issues which were originally seen as a barrier to a realistic application, by careful design and placement of blades. Various other speakers at the conference gave a fascinating insight into how technologies are being considered – from ACARE’s ‘Out of the Box’ program, which brainstormed ideas such as launcher rails and floating runways to see if they might just work one day, to a description of the highly successful Omega programme from Professor Ian Poll of Cranfield University, who has also been instrumental in the Greener by Design initiative. Both Omega and GbD aim to communicate facts about aviation and the environment, to inform policy-makers (among others) so they can make sound decisions. Poll pointed out that aircraft currently fly higher than that requried to achieve minimum environmental impact, but that this is because wings are over-sized to meet airfield performance (the constraint being airfields sized predominantly in wartime). Smaller wings and longer runways could allow an optimum 25,000ft cruising altitude, with the added benefit that contrails would not be formed. The effect of contrails is hard to quantify but the net effect is negative, so the fewer there are the better. Poll stressed the need for rigorous academic treatment and extolled the virtues of not allowing commercial interest to hijack the debate. Proceedings will be available soon from the Royal Aeronautical Society conference office.

LM Media Quiz

Lockheed Martin’s media quiz held last night at the Hard Rock Cafe in London’s Piccadilly was an excellent get together and a great way to end a busy year of reporting. Forgiven LM is for the occasional question on LM – some more obscure than others. But the company has certainly pulled off some product-placement coups in Holywood of late (even if the F-22’s future is less than certain, it looks the part even without CGI enhanced capabilities!)

A nosedive in the West

What a turning point the Summer of 2008 has been for the aerospace sector, and in particular the airline industry. High fuel prices have wreaked havoc with airline cash-flow and reserves, and a booming industry has suddenly found itself in a downward spiral again as the credit crunch pushes the US and Europe into recession. At July’s Farnborough air show everyone was putting on a brave face, talking the talk while hoping they’d come back from summer breaks and everything would be OK again. For this Blogger a very busy time has left no time for blogging but even aerospace journalists are struggling to find work now, such are the pressures on advertising budgets of the publishers. Seven years since 9/11 the world is no more certain in its direction, although luckily it seems that a U.S. economic downturn does not mean the same for the rest of the world – with China and India, and the Middle East, in booms all of their own.

787 Delays

In 2006 I worked on a book about the new 787 programme, and as part of our research the Editors were taken around the world on a 40-year old corporate 727, visiting factories in North Carolina, Italy and Japan. We learned much about the technology of this game-changing aircraft, and I became a believer (trying to remain objective of course!) My instinct told me that perhaps all this was too good to be true and so it is turning out to be the case – but not exactly for the reason I had thought. Not yet, anyway. For now it is mainly problems at those global partners we visited almost two years ago, when they had just finished building their 787 facilities. Wing-box structural problems have also caused some delay – in a webcast earlier today current 787 general manager Pat Shanahan said that a miscalculation in finite element analysis meant strengthening was required just as wiring work was coming to the centre section – causing a month or so delay. All in all, the latest slippage is, says Boeing, conservative enough to account (hopefully) for any other unforeseen problems. There’s essentially a six-month slippage, two months to system power-up (now June), two months extra between that and first flight, and two months leeway in the flight test programme. As AIN has just reported on its daily news e-mail, the 25 aircraft that will now be delivered in 2009 is less than the 35 that were moved from 2008 due to the first slippage. The Times of London reported this morning that the total slippage would be 18 months, compared to the original plan, and they were right. Let’s hope there are no more problems with the potentially game-changing aircraft, so that we really can see the first flight by Christmas this year.

VLJ warning

Could fate have sent a stark warning about Very Light Jets? A Cessna 500 crashed into a house shortly after taking off from Biggin Hill near London yesterday, killing both pilots and three passengers (luckily the house owners were not in the house at the time, they were on holiday). Why was this a warning? Well, it was only last week at a conference at the Royal Aeronautical Society that one speaker said that VLJs had been around for decades – and yes, the Cessna 500 was the aircraft he pointed too. It has eerie significance from where I’m standing, a passive observer. As the NTSB dispatches a team to help the AAIB, everyone must wait and see what the cause of this apparent double engine failure was… while those pondering the regulation of VLJs (at EASA in particular) have some real food for thought and hopefully constructive debate (as area where EASA has been doing its best to improve).